But that doesn’t mean the Tampa Bay area is out of the woods. Some models have swung back and are showing a direct hit. And Milton could certainly swing left just as it did right. Even if the eye of the storm were to point south, there would be significant intensification in the Gulf. The threat of storm surge extends to the Tampa Bay area, Bradenton, Sarasota, Venice, Englewood, the Port Charlotte area, Fort Myers, and Southwest Florida.
Gulf waters are likely to overflow barrier islands in some parts of the Gulf Coast between Tampa and Naples. Inland areas are also threatened by rising Gulf waters. Dangerous water levels will rise inland into estuaries, bays, harbors and upriver. South of the Fort Myers to Melbourne line, dangerous weather will develop in outer bands with damaging winds, tropical showers and a few tornadoes. Severe weather will develop during the day today, before the center of Milton moves ashore and will persist into the evening.
North of the Fort Myers to Melbourne line, heavy rain will develop and persist after onset. Thunderstorms with hurricane-force winds will down trees and cause power outages. Tornadoes are also possible. Rainfall amounts of up to 18 inches in some areas will cause flash flooding. As the center of Milton flows out into the Atlantic, a northerly backflow will push Atlantic water up the coast, into estuaries and rivers in North and Central Florida, Georgia and southern South Carolina causing significant saltwater flooding in some areas.
If you are sheltering in place in the Tampa Bay or Sarasota metropolitan area (i.e., do you watch Tampa or Sarasota TV for local news?), you are likely in the path of the strongest winds. Set up an area in the middle of your home an interior bathroom or hallway is usually best — as a safe place to shelter from the worst of the storm. Remember, a mattress is a good protection if your home is breached. If we lose people in this storm, it will likely be because they stayed in areas that have been ordered to evacuate. Not everyone who evacuates will need to evacuate. But if the system is working perfectly, everyone who needs to evacuate will be asked to evacuate.
Everyone on the Florida peninsula should make sure their phones and other important electronics are charged today. Many households will likely lose power tonight or early tomorrow morning. You still have time to fill pots, pans, and other containers with tap water to ensure you have drinking water after the storm. If you have a plastic painter's tarp, use it as a bathtub liner and fill it three-quarters of the way. That's the amount of water you'd use to wash and flush the toilet if your town's water system failed. Buy gas for your car (if you can find it), cash, and prescription medications today in the hurricane warning zone.
